Inconvenient News,
       by smintheus

Friday, June 08, 2007

  George Bush is bleeding public support now

Some stunning new poll numbers out today from AP-Ipsos (a tip of the hat to Scott Horton at Harper's). Support for George Bush and the Republican Party has plummeted just during the last month. Of course, Bush's poll numbers have been crumbling slowly for a long time. But the drop since May has been precipitous and nearly unprecedented during his presidency.

Here are some of the results:

  • The right track/wrong track numbers have dropped by 4% in the last month: 75% wrong track/ 21% right track. That's the worst they've ever been in this poll.

  • Bush's disapproval figure climbed by 5% in the last month, to 66% (again, his worst ever disapproval rating in this poll).

  • Bush's disapproval figure on his handling of "domestic issues" climbed by 4% in the last month, to 66% (again, his worst ever).

  • Bush's disapproval figure on his handling of "foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism" climbed by 6% to 63% (just below his worst ever showing of 64%).

  • Bush's disapproval figure on his handling of Iraq climbed 5% to 69% (just below his worst ever showing of 71%).

The only parallel for such a rapid collapse of support during Bush's presidency is from the period November to December 2006, when his numbers fell about as much in each category. That was immediately after an election in which Democrats swept to power. By the start of December, of course, Bush was also bogged down because of his determination to resist public pressure to adopt a diplomatic solution to the Iraq quagmire. So the huge Nov.-Dec. 2006 drop was a measure of Bush's extreme political troubles.

The same, I would argue, is true of this month's extraordinary collapse. Iraq is probably the largest factor; Americans simply don't believe the administration's ridiculous assertions that the "surge" is improving things. Domestically, Bush's immigration bill was deeply unpopular, especially with his few remaining supporters.

What these new numbers show is that Bush is rapidly becoming even more marginalized politically.

Oh, and one last set of numbers from the poll is worth noting: 54% of the public now identifies with the Democratic Party, only 36% with the Republicans.

So much for Rove's permanent Republican majority. If we go into the 2008 election with anything like a differential of 18% in voter ID, it will foretell an historic landslide.

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